Adobe expects U.S. online sales to be up 5.3% this year, at $253.4 billion.
getty
Adobe, in its annual online shopping forecast, released today, is predicting that U.S. ecommerce sales will hit $253.4 billion this holiday season, up 5.3% over last year.
This season, there are expected to be a record 10 days when consumers spend over $5 billion online within 24 hours.
Cyber Monday To See 14.2 Billion In Online Sales
Cyber Week, the five day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, is expected to generate 17.2% of total holiday online sales. Consumers are forecast to spend $43.7 billion during Cyber Week, up 6.3%. Cyber Monday will be the biggest online shopping day of the season, and the year, with $14.2 billion in sales, Adobe predicts.
The forecast for holiday 2025 indicates a “resilient” online consumer, Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights, said. This year’s expect online sales growth is a bit higher than 2023, and less than last year.
“You have consumers who’ve dealt with a lot of economic volatility by way of where prices have been, or expectations around prices,” and they are “reacting to a much different digital economy, in terms of the journeys they can take now,” Pandya said in an interview to discuss the forecast.
We are seeing “consumers leaning on the online economy to get a sense of value, to understand what’s available to them in the broader landscape, and that’s going to be very much the case this year as we crest past a quarter of a trillion dollars,” he said.
Gen-AI, Social Traffic Changing Shopping Journey
Contributing to the dramatically different digital journey for consumers is the surge in the use of generative AI-powered chat bots and browsers that help consumers research products and make purchase decisions, Pandya said.
During holiday 2024, Adobe saw AI-driven traffic to retail site jump 1,300% year-over-year. It is expecting AI-led traffic to increase 520% this holiday season, and peak in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving.
AI traffic is expected to peak in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving,
“Those moments when people are really focused in on their shopping, in that Thanksgiving week, we really see it accelerating,” Pandya said.
At those peak shopping times, consumers “are prioritizing efficiency, value, urgency,” he said. The generative AI platforms scan the vast online landscape, look at the social conversation about a product, review levels, “to provide a distilled, really strong response back to the user,” driving consumer use of AI, he said.
In addition, Adobe is seeing purchases driven by social media platforms increase significantly, Pandya said. The share of online revenue attributed to social traffic is expected to rise by 51% year-over-year, a significant increase from 5% year-over-year growth in 2024.
Mobile Shopping Driving Growth
The share of online spending on phones and mobile devices is expected to grow again this year to a record 56.1%. Adobe has been tracking the rapid shift to mobile shopping in recent years. In holiday 2020, only 40% of online spending was done on mobile devices.
“The retailers that are optimizing their mobile experiences, investing in their apps, they’re the ones who are able to drive the stronger growth,” Pandya said. Mobile sales are forecast to be 8.5% year-over-year, greater than overall online growth.
“It becomes really important for these retailers to insure that they’re there for the consumer on the smart phone, on the mobile device, because that’s where consumers want the efficiency. They want that one touch with that retailer they trust, and it’s at their door,” Pandya said.
Consumers also are expected to lean more heavily on Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) payment plans to manage holiday expenses. BNPL is expected to drive $20.2 billion in holiday spending, $2 billion more than last year, and up 11% year-over-year.
Cyber Monday Best Day For Deals On Electronics
Discounting by retailers is expected to be at levels similar to last year, with discounts of up to 28%.
The electronics category is expected to see the highest discounts, at 28%, followed closely by toys, at 27%. Other categories expected to have competitive discounts are apparel (25%), TVs (23%), computers (23), sporting goods (19%), appliances (18%) and furniture (18%).
Cyber Monday will be the best day to get deals on electronics, apparel, and computers, and Black Friday will be the best day for discounts on appliances, TVs, and toys, according to Adobe.